Innovation Advisory · Framework 08
A 2×2 matrix · 4 quadrantsThe Rumsfeld matrix, adapted for programme design and MEL work. Its four quadrants map what the programme knows, what it knows it does not know, what it has decided not to look at, and where the surprises will come from.
The evidence base
What do we already know, and how strong is the evidence?
This quadrant holds the established literature, previous evaluations, baseline findings and settled facts about the population and the system. List them carefully. Then ask which of them are still true today, and which are out of date but still on the slides.
The questions
What gaps in the evidence have we agreed to investigate?
This quadrant holds the hypotheses the MEL plan is designed to test, the questions the funder wants answered, and the parts of the pathway nobody has measured yet. If it is small, you have either solved the problem or stopped looking.
The tacit and the suppressed
What do we already know but have not named, including what we have decided not to look at?
This quadrant holds the frontline worker who has run this programme before and was not invited to the design meeting, the biases and assumptions built into the choice of indicator, and the politically inconvenient findings from the last evaluation. Most programmes pretend it does not exist.
The blind spots
Where will the surprises come from?
This quadrant holds the shocks the design has not modelled, the consequences in other sectors that nobody mapped, and the populations the sample frame cannot reach. Run a pre-mortem: imagine the project has failed in eighteen months and write its obituary. The cause of death is usually found here.
The matrix has two axes. The horizontal axis is knowledge, meaning what the programme has and what it lacks. The vertical axis is awareness, meaning what the programme has noticed and what it has not.
Most programme design happens in the top half, among the knowns and the acknowledged gaps. Trouble usually starts in the bottom half. The unknown knowns quadrant holds tacit knowledge, suppressed findings and unspoken assumptions, which are the things in the room that nobody is naming. The unknown unknowns quadrant holds the real surprises, such as shocks to the whole system, the equity dimensions you did not think to disaggregate by, and the second-order consequences in neighbouring sectors.
Used as a pre-mortem, the matrix makes the team fill in the bottom row before the project starts. Used as a review, it makes the team write down what it has agreed not to look at. Pair it with the Causal Pathway Review when testing a Theory of Change, and with the Indicator Test when testing the metrics.